New Delhi, September 24, 2026: India's economic outlook has received a series of upward revisions from major international institutions, with the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings all raising their forecasts for the country's economic growth in the current financial year.
The revisions come after stronger-than-expected economic activity during the first quarter of financial year 2026-27. India's economy recorded 7.8% year-on-year growth in the April-June quarter, according to the latest official estimates. The performance has prompted several global institutions to reassess their expectations for the year ahead.
The OECD has raised its forecast for India's FY27 growth to 7.1%, up from its earlier projection of 6.3%. The organisation expects growth to moderate to 6.5% in FY28. The OECD said the stronger recent performance provided the basis for the upward revision, while also highlighting factors that could influence growth during the remainder of the year.
The Asian Development Bank has also increased its FY27 forecast to 7%, compared with its previous estimate of 6.6%. The ADB attributed the revision to stronger-than-expected economic performance, robust investment demand, resilient consumption and continued growth in manufacturing and services.
S&P Global Ratings has similarly revised its growth forecast to 7%. Fitch Ratings has raised its estimate to 6.9%, according to reports published on September 24. The latest forecasts from the four institutions therefore place India's expected FY27 growth between 6.9% and 7.1%.
The revisions indicate that international forecasters currently see continued strength in India's domestic economic activity. Manufacturing, services, investment and domestic consumption have been identified among the factors supporting the outlook. India's relatively large domestic market has also provided some resilience amid uncertainty in the global economy.
However, the revised forecasts do not mean that economic risks have disappeared. International agencies have pointed to geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures, weather-related disruptions and developments in global trade as potential risks to India's growth trajectory.
Inflation and interest rates remain another area of attention. Reports indicate that some institutions expect the Reserve Bank of India to consider monetary-policy tightening if inflationary pressures increase. Higher interest rates can affect borrowing costs for households and businesses, potentially influencing consumption and investment.
The latest Purchasing Managers' Index data provides another indicator of current business conditions. India's HSBC Flash Composite PMI increased from 54.3 in August to 56.5 in September, indicating stronger private-sector activity. Manufacturing recorded stronger gains, while new domestic orders and output also improved.
The improvement in business activity comes at an important time for companies preparing for the festive season. Stronger consumer demand can support sectors such as retail, automobiles, consumer goods, travel and services.
At the same time, international developments remain important for India's economy. Energy prices, global supply chains, trade conditions and geopolitical tensions can influence India's import bill, inflation and business costs.
For businesses and investors, the latest growth revisions provide an updated picture of international expectations for India's economy. Actual economic performance, however, will depend on developments during the remainder of FY27 and subsequent official data releases.
The latest projections therefore point to continued economic expansion while also highlighting the need to monitor inflation, global risks and domestic demand.
